It is common for some forecasters to blindly go along with someone else’s forecast. The ultimate embarrassment is to forecast a non-event and a big event occurs or vice-versa. After the forecaster has determined the expected winter precipitation and whether it will be a big deal or not, it is up to the forecaster to inform the public of how much preparation they need to accomplish for the event. generally needs 6 or more inches to be a big deal while anything over an inch in the South is a cause for concern. Sleet is a big deal if it accumulates sufficiently on the road. Generally, freezing rain or drizzle on a below-freezing road surface is a “big event” even in small amount because it can cause traffic accidents with only a minor accumulation. It is up to the forecaster to determine what accumulation entails a big event. Three inches of snow in South Bend, Indiana is a “no big deal” event and is only casually noticed while 3 inches of snow in Atlanta, GA will be a “huge event” making front cover news and people frantically buying groceries and preparing late into the night the day before the big snowfall. Whether an event is big or not is regionally dependent. Calling for a no event when “decent” winter precipitation occurs or calling for a big event and having nothing happen are clearly busted forecasts. It is up to the forecaster to determine which category the event will entail. The following questions need to be addressed in a winter precipitation event: What will be the precipitation type(s)? What will be the accumulation? How intense and at what duration will the precipitation be? Is a forecaster overdoing or underdoing the event? Will the temperatures be cold enough to support an accumulation? What evidence is there that winter precipitation will occur at all? There are three categories that will be discussed for a winter precipitation event. A winter weather situation requires much more time looking at the analysis and model charts than on a typical day. The rain/sleet/mix/snow line has the ultimate impact in determining which locations will receive winter precipitation and how much. The winter precipitation forecast is particularly challenging in the “transition zone” region. The public is very sensitive to winter forecasts primarily due to the travel headaches they cause. The complexity is with determining precipitation type, areal coverage, and whether any winter precipitation will accumulate at the ground surface in the first place. One of the more difficult forecasts to make is the winter precipitation forecast.
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